Buy Lows and Sell Highs | Fantasy Hockey

Buy Low on These 5 Players

Clayton Keller

36 points in 42 games.
5v5 shooting% is 10.9% vs 12.4% career, and 5v5 IPP is 53.33% (well below his normal involvement).
5v5 on-ice shooting% is 8.75% (lowest of his career), meaning teammates are not finishing when he is on the ice.
If his role stays the same, those luck indicators usually rebound and the points/goal pace follows.

Under pace: only 44 points in 42 games.
Track record: typically a reliable ~100-point fantasy player.
Buy-low window: when a star is "only okay," managers get impatient, so it is the perfect time to trade before the next heater.

Underperforming production: only 33 points in 44 games.
Shooting slump: 9% SH% vs 11.9% career, likely to climb back up.
Proven fantasy value: consistent top ~50 fantasy player over the last 4 seasons.
Upside: once shooting normalizes, his goals/points pace can jump quickly.

Under pace: only 32 points in 44 games.
Double luck dip: very low SH% and low OISH% (on-ice SH%) to both tend to regress upward.
Buy-low signal: when both personal finishing and team finishing are cold, it is often temporary so points usually rebound without needing a role change.

On-ice puck luck is awful: 6.56% on-ice SH% (very low) so points should rise when line mates finish more.
Second-half monster: Fiala is consistently better in the second half every year.
Classic buy-low profile: low on-ice conversion + strong historical late-season production.

Sell High on These 5 Players

Massive jump in production: 67 points in 43 GP this season (24G, 43A) vs 63 points in 70 GP last season.
Shooting% spike: 16.8% this year vs 10.6% last year (even if he is elite, that is a big jump).
Best-case value right now: he is being valued like a true top-tier fantasy piece; if someone will pay finished-product superstar prices, you can cash out before any natural regression hits.
Easy sell-high angle: he is legit, but take the guaranteed haul while the heater and shooting% are peaking.

Same points in way fewer games: 46 points in 41 GP this year vs 51 points in 71 GP last year.
Shooting% is way up: 20.0% this season vs 11.9% last season, the biggest sell-high flag.
Goal scoring pace is inflated: he already has 23 goals in 41 games; last year he had 23 goals in 71 games.
If someone is valuing him like a locked-in ~40G / ~90+ point guy, that is the window.

Breakout scoring pace: 36 points in 36 GP this season vs 37 points in 73 GP last season.
Goals doubled in half the games: 12 goals in 36 GP this year vs 6 goals in 73 GP last year.
Shooting% explosion: 14.1% this season vs 5.6% last season (classic regression candidate, especially for a defenseman).
More volume too: 2.36 shots/game this year vs 1.48 shots/game last year; the role looks better, but the SH% is still the red flag.
If someone thinks this is a new permanent level and pays like a set-and-forget top D, move him.

Better pace than last year: 35 points in 44 GP this season vs 48 points in 72 GP last season.
The sell-high angle is value plus risk: his career high is 69 points (2021-22), and he has had stretches of missed time (injuries).
If someone is buying him as a safe 75-80 point winger, that is when you consider moving him.

Big bounce-back year: 41 points in 42 GP this season.
Shooting% is way up: 18.3% this year vs 12.2% last year (and 8.2% the year before).
Goal pace spike: already 17 goals this season; last year he had 12 goals in 57 GP.
If someone in your league still views Zegras as a future star and pays like a top-50 lock, you take that deal while the SH% and hype are stacked.